Friday, March 18, 2011

USDJPY FX - Relight My Fire!

Like the recent reunion of a certain famous boyband, the G7 bankers put on a spectacular show in early Asian trade. Such coordinated intervention in the currency markets has not been seen in years, which goes to show their determination this time round. While it's effectiveness has yet to be determined, isn't it moving to see the world banding together to help Japan in it's time of need. 

Looks to me like USDJPY would need to close above 82.00 at least to keep the bears away; here's a little chart to illustrate:

USDJPY - looking for a daily close above a previous support line












Well, we've been stopped out on our USDJPY and Nikkei positions (see earlier post) - USDJPY with a little slippage, acceptable under these conditions - and now await more clarity. We jumped in to buy USDJPY ard 80.80, and have placed stops at 80.90 in case things turn around again. No expectations for this trade, it's just to play our part in supporting Japan :)

On a more serious note, EURUSD closed nicely above 1.40 on Thursday, and for those who like candlesticks (who doesn't? it makes your chart so colorful), that would be a Bullish Engulfing Candle on the dailies; albeit appearing in consolidation after a rally. As explained previously, we've been waiting for this move and went long in early Asian trade ard 1.4025. The dip below 1.4000 during USDJPY intervention was a little disconcerting, but our stop at 1.3950 remains. Japan's Finance Minister later mentioned that they may intervene in EURJPY, which might help EURUSD higher. We're targeting 1.4250-1.4300 levels.

Also, we're encouraged by EURGBP's move above 0.8700, but this strength would require further confirmation at Friday's close. We're preparing to go long this pair (refer to this post).

In other news, the UN's strongly worded resolution on Libya to protect it's civilians has been overshadowed for now by the G7 reunion - er, sorry, action. But one wonders how this will affect the markets (USD buying in times of uncertainty, anyone?).

Ok, sit back, enjoy the show, and be prepared for surprises. Every good show has one or two up it's sleeves.

Peace.

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