FX Trading - Seasons in the Abyss

Ah, the sweet scent of flowers in spring time. As we prepare to enter Oster-monath, or April to all you modern sorts out there, let's do like farmers of old and take a look at the good 'ol almanac to see what it has to say about currencies. For us, it'll be the Commodity Trader's Almanac 2011, an interesting little tome.

'The euro has weakened in April the past 3 years...British pound best seasonal long trade from March signals an exit on or about April 20...yen best seasonal short trade from March signals an exit on or about April 1.' (emphasis is mine)

It must be said that if you had followed the suggestions for Hreth-monath, or March, you would not be in the best of spirits right now; short EUR March 15, short JPY March 14 (1st trading day after the earthquake), and long GBP Mar 21, although you would still be holding the latter 2 positions so you could still end up with a profit. 

We'll look back again in May and see how things work out then. (oh, how I wished I could tell you now).

In the immediate future (this week itself), we have everybody's favorite market-moving release coming out on Fri ( *chant* NFP! NFP!), German CPI, UK GDP, and US Consumer Confidence on Tue, a bunch of Fed speakers on the cards and a whole lot of other stuff I've stupidly missed. So stay alert, stay focused, but for god's sake, relax.

Peace